Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 93936.100286 99036.067404 104130.719279 109598.478799 115297.008413 121057.443980 127317.027546
2025-06-01 86252.713930 94122.085744 102198.460977 111096.105385 120612.469021 130474.549627 141456.508344
2025-06-08 79616.458159 89309.903589 99474.529694 110905.901449 123381.224320 136560.082034 151511.935965
2025-06-15 75715.235344 86898.672539 98835.632921 112488.419498 127633.704971 143881.795405 162592.462496
2025-06-22 72107.016828 84446.077611 97823.634304 113350.903765 130821.467985 149814.638901 171966.860488
2025-06-29 68585.998406 81819.711855 96372.588044 113490.480420 132997.769810 154458.287752 179773.240219
2025-07-06 65459.010621 79435.664522 95008.351537 113550.810987 134928.417703 158700.844739 187030.788515
2025-07-13 63789.230241 78605.389615 95308.083948 115413.156947 138831.733496 165121.514738 196733.088801
2025-07-20 62140.238564 77691.740728 95418.242550 116974.142190 142324.749259 171035.025986 205844.326657
2025-07-27 60280.954211 76429.409277 95033.220482 117877.816876 144990.986827 175955.181797 213792.712388
2025-08-03 58124.772519 74714.196614 94025.927875 117966.218594 146633.015381 179636.813490 220272.040430
2025-08-10 56299.153465 73320.033215 93330.870913 118361.798322 148586.086846 183647.555507 227121.822508
2025-08-17 54402.455775 71794.187997 92446.176325 118513.634015 150254.049277 187353.592640 233678.781835
2025-08-24 53218.346904 71104.906131 92542.834839 119830.045150 153313.494958 192723.511469 242251.436148
2025-08-31 51317.902470 69450.233952 91392.728956 119564.373379 154408.455868 195712.726338 247962.988591
2025-09-07 50480.172632 69101.202290 91828.523156 121231.723404 157854.500249 201539.643522 257120.595561
2025-09-14 49337.260727 68317.721838 91683.492149 122144.851150 160351.402205 206210.074386 264890.259535
2025-09-21 47903.062991 67109.332984 90959.255882 122292.391784 161868.820442 209668.392672 271181.477361
2025-09-28 46507.556055 65905.229395 90198.869476 122356.319564 163252.215568 212944.954956 277248.101412
2025-10-05 46038.067805 65896.027714 90951.389039 124334.835756 167041.572231 219206.231957 287029.521031
2025-10-12 45456.374659 65714.117349 91462.852553 125992.938488 170424.883826 224976.270042 296234.306492
2025-10-19 44606.380523 65144.771054 91447.160107 126952.724665 172910.876259 229629.985519 304069.241653
2025-10-26 43433.690062 64105.480872 90785.566290 127046.610738 174269.230608 232860.550927 310128.618979